East Side your Limit drop is comming

[MathGeek]

Originally Posted by Duck Butter

The limit of trout is probably the very least important thing for the east side fisheries. We are losing land at an incredible rate. You can see it for yourself if you just drive over the new bridge in Leeville. The old roads go under water often, and the places you caught fish the year before look different each year due to erosion and subsidence. We better all take good pictures every tiime you go to Grand Isle because it is going to look different even in a decade. Even Elmer's Island looks different from what it looked like 10 or 15 years ago due to sea level rise. Its very noticeable

I agree. Over harvest of spotted seatrout is about the least likely factor to have a long term negative impact on the estuary and lowering limits in the absence of careful, thorough, published, and reviewed stock assessments is tilting at windmills because limit changes have not been shown to produce any benefit.

In contrast, erosion, saltwater intrusion, conversion of marsh type, loss of oyster reefs, and industrial contamination are the bigger issues facing most of the estuaries in southern Louisiana. However, because of high fecundity, fast growth rates, early maturity, and less dependence on marsh habitat, the spotted seatrout has a life history that is much less likely to be strongly impacted by these factors than other inshore and nearshore species.

At present, it is unclear whether observations of fewer trophy spotted seatrout in some estuaries that have previously demonstrated outstanding trophy potential are due to loss of oyster reef and other habitat issues or whether reduction in the trophy potential is due to overpopulated smaller seatrout (due to underharvest). Addressing this question would likely require a thorough stock assessment both of spotted seatrout as well as their major food sources. A spotted seatrout stock assessment should include both fisheries dependent and fisheries independent survey methods, surveys of larval and juvenile stages, analysis of weight, length, body condition, and growth of both juveniles and adults.

Without a sound stock assessment, it is unclear whether a limit reduction would help or hurt the stocks. If the spotted seatrout are currently overpopulated relative to their available food supply in a given estuary, then reducing limits will exacerbate the problem by increasing pressure on the available food supply. If the spotted seatrout are underpopulated then limit reductions may be necessary as a part of a management plan.

You can think of it this way: if the reduction of an estuary's trophy trout potential is due to overharvest, then a stock assessment will show a much smaller proportion of older fish, but the fish that are present will be plump and fast growing because there is relatively abundant forage for the fish that are present. In contrast, if the reduction of an estuary's trophy trout potential is due to overpopulation relative to the food supply, then a thorough stock assessment will show slower growth rates, thinner fish, and declining body condition with the age and length of the fish that are present. The sampling protocol is something of a challenge and would need to include significant sampling in the nearshore Gulf waters adjacent to the estuary to be sure because it would be likely that spotted seatrout would be migrating to the Gulf at earlier ages in search of food if food is limiting their growth in the estuary.

I understand the temptation to lower limits because it is an easy answer and at least represents "doing something" when faced with the concern of the future of a fishery. Unfortunately, government types are often too quick to give into this temptation because rule changes are cheaper and easier than thorough stock assessments and good science. The esturaries and future of the fisheries would be better served if we pressured the government types to conduct, publish, and explain thorough stock assessments rather than pressuring for rule changes in their absence.