Statistics question

[Reggoh]

Statistically speaking, I would have to say that this situation is not mutually exclusive like a coin flip. (no matter how many times you flip a coin, each flip is still only 50/50)

This situation changes with each time the person enters the area. Some things can become conditioned (taken for granted because it's always the same) like walking in your house at night without the lights on... you know where the furniture is. But every time that person enters the area he has an increased chance of being alerted to the camera or something catching his eye.

You also have to remember that every time you enter the area to check the camera you increase the chances of changing something that could alert the thief to your presence. Check it in irregular intervals.