"Natural migration" what is that? Is there a such thing. If biologists are right and we are having record hatches every year what is there to worry about? Animals are good at adapting for the most part, and it seems that waterfowl are doing just fine. The country has changed a lot in the last 30 years as far as farming technology is concerned, and it will continue to change drastically. No matter how hard anyone tries, the ducks are never going to go back to their "natural migration." We hear every year about record hatches, so there are plenty of ducks.
As far as them reaching louisiana, plenty of ducks still winter here. The problem is, 70% of duck hunters couldn't kill them these days even if you stuck them in one of the best blinds around. I killed 1061 ducks out of my blind this year and hunted everyday. I have a pretty good feel on how weather plays into our particular marsh. When the hard cold fronts hit, the mallards would show up for 2 days and leave as soon as it warmed up. Yes the ducks stop up north probably now more than ever, but there are still PLENTY of birds down here. To even talk about 30 and 3 right now is absolutely ridiculous.
Aerial surveys in my opinion are a joke. I fly pretty often in small planes, and it is hard as hell to see ducks from the air. Also, how are you going to see birds in the timber? Surveyors could easily miss one pond or one field that could be holding tens of thousands of birds, therefore making surveys look disappointing.
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