"The majority of cannabis-related admissions among youth result from referrals either from the justice or educational systems, and it is probable that at least some of these referrals were motivated more by concern over the future consequences of early initiation to cannabis use than by apparent negative effects of current cannabis use. A major focus of concern is the extent to which early cannabis use may increase the risks for escalation to other drug use and drug dependence. Stage theory posits that there is an invariant sequence in initiation and use of drugs, with use of cannabis preceding the use of "hard" drugs such as cocaine and heroin. This theory has been highly influential in drug policy debates and has provided a major rationale for sustaining prohibition against cannabis, as it is assumed that delaying or preventing early cannabis use may reduce risks of other illicit drug use.
While this broad theory has found some empirical support, such data on temporal sequencing do not establish that the use of one drug causes the use of drugs higher up the sequence. Rather, the observed pattern of initiation and use may reflect other factors such as availability and access. Nonetheless, several studies using event history analysis and regression analyses have reported that early initiation to cannabis use remains a significant risk factor for both the use of other drugs and experiencing drug-related problems." -Escalation of Drug Use in Early-Onset Cannabis Users vs Co-twin Controls
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