The condition of the fish stocks is a different matter that needs to be assessed independently of angler satisfaction.

Fish change patterns and get harder to catch in response to different factors which might not negatively impact stock condition. Vain anglers have a hard time internalizing the idea that it may be their skills, location, or presentation that is leaving so much space in the ice chests.

We've got four years of data now that begin to shed light on how fish species compete with each other for available forage and the relative importance of various factors. Here is a preliminary rank ordering based on currently available information:

1. Oyster reefs
2. Water temperature (cool spring is better)
3. Salinity (specks like saltier springs)
4. Marsh-lake exchange (days weirs open)

Additional data and more careful analysis will clarify the issues a bit better, and the rank ordering for each species and length class will not be the same. Black drum prefer lower salinity, and redfish don't seem to care. Black drum also depend more on marsh-lake exchange.

I'm not sensitive to the word. I just don't understand how people blatantly throw around something with certainty when it is such a complex system. I'm not saying you were throwing that out as the only reason either, but that has been a very popular opinion on here, irrelevant of how many facts MG puts on here.

Funny thing is, depending on the topic, the reason for poor fishing or small fish can be solely due to oysters, weirs, erosion, limits, pilgrims, black panthers, or big foot depending on the day of the week or the time of the day.

Aw man. Why did you have to point out that we've left the black panthers and big foot out of our analysis?

Smalls no one has ever said it was the weirs alone that is killing the lake

I have always added

Oyster dredging and erosion as big factors also

When you close the weirs for a long period of time "YES" it hurts the estuary and fishing numbers show for it

Weirs been open for 3 weeks now and fishing is wonderful but watch when then close em back , I give it two weeks then the decline again

No doubt that exchange of forage and fish between the marsh and lake contribute to the health and productivity of finfish in the lake.

But it's just silly to think fish above the 12" limit for specks and 16" limit for redfish appear and disappear from the entire fishery with the opening and closing of the weirs.

Opening the weirs puts the fish in a convenient, known location and makes them easier to catch. Closing the weirs forces the fish to roam over larger areas to meet theit forage requirements, thus requiring more skill to locate and catch them.

This year, bait fish are especially abundant in the estuary, especially croaker and menhaden. The closing of the pogey plant has probably contributed here, as has the late start to the shrimping season which has the effect of reducing bycatch mortality of bait fish. When the weirs are closed, the fish are spread far and wide chasing the bait fish, harder to catch, but getting plenty to eat.

The habitat issues need to be addressed to ensure long term productivity and stability. But the sky is not falling, and the weirs are not the most important issue facing the system.

Just doing my part for science man. Lmao!

I just heard them boys really like fish!

Importance of temperature
 

A colleague who is independently analyzing the data just emailed the attached graph showing the (negative) correlations between relative condition factor of the four species studied (spotted seatrout, red drum, black drum, and gafftopsail catfish) and the mean water temperature in the estuary over the 30 day, 60 day, and 90 day interval immediately before each individual fish was weighed and measured to determine its condition factor. This graph includes measurements from over 1100 individual fish covering 2011-2014.

The fact that all the correlations are negative suggests that fish thrive more in cooler waters in spring. (Measurements were in late May and early June.) Warmer water may increase forage availability, but it seems to increase metabolic costs by a greater amount so that fish tend to lose body condition in warmer water during spring and gain body condition under cooler water conditions. This temperature sensitivity seems to be the greatest in spotted seatrout and smallest in black drum.